Using Recurrent Artificial Neural Networks to Forecast Household Electricity Consumption

Abstract The electricity consumption related to the civil sector (residential and tertiary) in the most developed countries has considerably increased during the last years, especially in the summer season. One of the reasons for this rise can be found in the drastic growth of the sales of mono and multi-split systems for air-conditioning. In this context is very important to assess the correlation between electricity demand and utilization of electric appliances (especially airconditioners). This paper describes a model based on an Elman Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for the short-time forecasting (1 hour ahead) of the household electric consumption related to a suburban area in the neighbours of the town of Palermo (Italy). One of the aims of the study is the assessment of the influence of the use of air-conditioning equipments on the electricity demand

Investigating, Implementing and Funding Regenerative Urban Design in a Post-COVID-19 Pandemic Built Environment: A Reading Through Selected UN Sustainable Development Goals and the European Green Deal

Before the world was impacted by COVID-19, progress towards the 2030 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) was already uneven, and a more focused attention was needed in most SDGs target areas. The pandemic abruptly disrupted plans and efforts towards urban transition, in some cases reverting decades of progress. The concept of resilience changed in 2020 and having to face severe health issues combined with increased socio-economic challenges in a climate change scenario, cities must urgently explore how to best combine environmental goals with economic recovery and social justice, modifying on-going plans and initiatives, while re-arranging priorities. Acknowledging the impact that the pandemic will produce, for the years to come, on processes and initiatives towards a regenerative economy, this contribution describes most recent strategies aimed at urban transition in Europe, and critically discusses available options with respect to implementation and funding, within the framework of selected UN SDGs. Our conclusions challenge the ability of our modern society to put in practice the needed urgent actions, and call for a paradigm shift to prepare Europe to deal with climate disruptions, activate transition to a healthy and prosperous future within the planetary boundaries, and scale up solutions that will trigger transformations for the benefit of people and the environment

Estimation of wind velocity over a complex terrain using the Generalized Mapping Regressor

Wind energy evaluation is an important goal in the conversion of energy systems to more environmentally friendly solutions. In this paper, we present a novel approach to wind speed spatial estimation on the isle of Sicily (Italy): an incremental self-organizing neural network (Generalized Mapping Regressor - GMR) is coupled with exploratory data analysis techniques in order to obtain a map of the spatial distribution of the average wind speed over the entire region. First, the topographic surface of the island was modelled using two different neural techniques and by exploiting the information extracted from a digital elevation model of the region. Then, GMR was used for automatic modelling of the terrain roughness. Afterwards, a statistical analysis of the wind data allowed for the estimation of the parameters of the Weibull wind probability distribution function. In the last sections of the paper, the expected values of the Weibull distributions were regionalized using the GMR neural networ

Rethinking Sustainability Towards a Regenerative Economy

This open access book is based on work from the COST Action “RESTORE - REthinking Sustainability TOwards a Regenerative Economy'', and highlights how sustainability in buildings, facilities and urban governance is crucial for a future that is socially just, ecologically restorative, and economically viable, for Europe and the whole planet. In light of the search for fair solutions to the climate crisis, the authors outline the urgency for the built environment sector to implement adaptation and mitigation strategies, as well as a just transition. As shown in the chapters, this can be done by applying a broader framework that enriches places, people, ecology, culture, and climate, at the core of the design task - with a particular emphasis on the benefits towards health and resilient business practices. This book is one step on the way to a paradigm shift towards restorative sustainability for new and existing buildings. The authors want to promote forward thinking and multidisciplinary knowledge, leading to solutions that celebrate the richness of design creativity. In this vision, cities of the future will enhance users’ experience, health and wellbeing inside and outside of buildings, while reconciling anthropic ecosystems and nature. A valuable resource for scientists and students in environmental sciences and architecture, as well as policy makers, practitioners and investors in urban and regional development

Reduktion des Viehbestandes und Steigerung der Eiweißautarkie: Landwirte im Spagat zwischen Ökologie und Ökonomie

Die ökologischen und ökonomischen Auswirkungen der Reduktion des Viehbesatzes und die Erhöhung der Proteinautarkie durch die Verringerung des Sojabohnenanteils in den Futterrationen und durch die nationale Sojaproduktion werden mit einem hybriden ABM-LCA-Modell simuliert und analysiert

Is Agent-Based Simulation a Valid Tool for Studying the Impact of Nature-Based Solutions on Local Economy? A Case Study of Four European Cities

Implementing nature-based solutions (NBSs) in cities, such as urban forests, can have multiple effects on the quality of life of inhabitants, acting on the mitigation of climate change, and in some cases also enhancing citizens’ social life and the transformation of customer patterns in commercial activities. Assessing this latter effect is the aim of this paper. An agent-based model (ABM) was used to assess change in commercial activities by small and midsize companies in retail due to the development of parks. The paper focuses on the potential capacity of NBS green spaces to boost retail companies’ business volumes, thus increasing their revenues, and at the same time create a pleasant feeling of space usability for the population. The type of NBS is not specified but generalized into large green spaces. The simulation contains two types of agents: (1) residents and (2) shop owners. Factors that attract new retail shops to be established in an area are simplified, based on attractor points, which identify areas such as large green spaces within and around which shops can form. The simulations provided insights on the number of retail shops that can be sustained based on the purchasing behavior of citizens that walk in parks. Four European cities were explored: Szeged (Hungary), Alcalá de Henares (Spain), Çankaya Municipality (Turkey) and Milan (Italy). The model allowed analyzing the indirect economic benefit of NBSs (i.e., large green spaces in this case) on a neighborhood’s economic structure. More precisely, the presence of green parks in the model boosted the visits of customers to local small shops located within and around them, such as cafés and kiosks, allowing for the emergence of 5–6 retail shops (on average, for about 800 walking citizens) in the case of Szeged and an average 12–14 retail shops for a simulated population of 2900 persons that walk in parks in the case of Milan. Overall, results from this modeling exercise can be considered representative for large urban green areas usually visited by a substantial number of citizens. However, their pertinence to support for local policies for NBS implementation and other decision-making related activities of socioeconomic nature is hampered by the low representativeness of source data used for the simulations

An open building information modelling based co-simulation architecture to model building energy and environmental life cycle assessment: A case study on two buildings in the United Kingdom and Luxembourg

Given the complexity and interconnection of different aspects involved in building evaluation, one of the most relevant, and challenging, research topics is the integration of different domain models (such as thermal comfort, indoor environmental quality and occupant comfort) to effectively describe and inform improvement strategies for the behaviour and performance of a building and building stock. Currently, this problem is unsolved with only one study attempting to integrate building energy simulation and life cycle assessments (separately, both practices are utilised to facilitate the design and management of buildings, traditionally consultancies offer building energy simulation services – most commonly for regulatory purposes – and more recently life cycle impact assessments), whilst no work has attempted this integration in a dynamic manner. This study addresses this gap by developing a dynamic, open building information modelling based co-simulation architecture. This architecture is the first to tightly couple and integrate EnergyPlus and Brightway2, in a way that does not rely upon heuristics or simplified tools. Furthermore, it is the first building energy simulation and life cycle assessment co-simulation to enable time-differentiated (dynamic) results and the first to be enabled only by open technologies. The architecture has been validated against two case-study non-domestic buildings located in the United Kingdom and Luxembourg, demonstrating its applicability to the construction and operational life cycle phases of buildings. The work presented in this paper has shown how a time-differentiated co-simulation approach across energy and lifecycle domains enables a more holistic analysis of whole buildings with greater accuracy and granularity

The European Standards for Energy Efficiency in Buildings: an analysis of the Evolution with Reference to a Case Study

The improvement of the energy efficiency of building stocks represents an important contribution for the reduction of the energy consumption in the European Union (EU), along with the decrease of greenhouse gases emissions. In this aim both the public administrations and the technical experts need reliable calculation methodology to assess buildings’ energy performance. In this framework, despite the recent publication of the Standard EN ISO 52016, that deeply modifies the approach to the energy building simulation by introducing a new hourly dynamic calculation model, the current normative framework (EN ISO 13790) will maintain its validity until the incorporation of the new Standard in the national Standards and Decrees (such as the Italian Standard UNI/TS 11300-1) will take place. The aim of this paper is comparing the suitability of the simulation approaches proposed by the above-cited Standards in relation to their different levels of complexity and to the levels of details of the results provided by them. On purpose, a case study in which the energy behaviour of a public building, sited in the Sicilian city of Trapani in the South of Italy, will be analysed and the results of the simulations conducted according to the aforementioned Standards will be compared considering the outcomes of the EnergyPlus software as reference values